Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.Bishuiyuan and others set up a new environmental protection technology company in Taiyuan. The enterprise search APP shows that Taiyuan Bishuiyuan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. was established recently, with the legal representative of Liu Yanwei and the registered capital of 275 million yuan. Its business scope includes: urban greening management; Water pollution prevention and control services; Sales of new membrane materials; Public utilities management services, etc. Enterprise equity penetration shows that the company is jointly held by Bishuiyuan and others.Analyst: The market from September 24th to October 8th may not be interpreted in the short term. Today, the A-share market opened, and the three major indexes all opened sharply higher. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 2.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index opened 3.66%, the Growth Enterprise Market Index opened 4.88%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened less than 50 stocks. In addition, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened up 3.21%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.24%. So, how to interpret the future market? Analysts believe that the market from September 24 to October 8 may not be interpreted in the short term. After all, the chip pressure still exists, but the bull market atmosphere may last longer and spread more widely. From the short-term perspective, three major signals have also appeared. First of all, the one ETF Southern China A-Share CSI 500, which was first opened in the peripheral Japanese stock market, fell slightly after it surged. Yesterday, the Nasdaq China Jinlong Index also fell back in the late session, and after the A50 opened in the morning, it also fell slightly, indicating that the funds may be more rational. Second, before the surge, the intensity of foreign ambush was not as great as last time. Yesterday's data showed that the global position of Long onlys has returned to the level of June. The low option trading volume of FXI/KWEB also shows the slight degree of macro investors' positions. It may also mean that the follow-up potential is also relatively large; Third, foreign investors have less doubts about the market this time than last time. After the last surge, foreign investment was still generally not optimistic, but the degree of optimism was significantly enhanced this time. (Broker China)
Analyst: The market from September 24th to October 8th may not be interpreted in the short term. Today, the A-share market opened, and the three major indexes all opened sharply higher. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 2.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index opened 3.66%, the Growth Enterprise Market Index opened 4.88%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened less than 50 stocks. In addition, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened up 3.21%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.24%. So, how to interpret the future market? Analysts believe that the market from September 24 to October 8 may not be interpreted in the short term. After all, the chip pressure still exists, but the bull market atmosphere may last longer and spread more widely. From the short-term perspective, three major signals have also appeared. First of all, the one ETF Southern China A-Share CSI 500, which was first opened in the peripheral Japanese stock market, fell slightly after it surged. Yesterday, the Nasdaq China Jinlong Index also fell back in the late session, and after the A50 opened in the morning, it also fell slightly, indicating that the funds may be more rational. Second, before the surge, the intensity of foreign ambush was not as great as last time. Yesterday's data showed that the global position of Long onlys has returned to the level of June. The low option trading volume of FXI/KWEB also shows the slight degree of macro investors' positions. It may also mean that the follow-up potential is also relatively large; Third, foreign investors have less doubts about the market this time than last time. After the last surge, foreign investment was still generally not optimistic, but the degree of optimism was significantly enhanced this time. (Broker China)The concept of Tik Tok rose before noon, and the provincial and Guangzhou Group hit the board in a straight line. Tianlong Group rose by more than 10%, followed by Xinghui Entertainment, Chinese Online and Gravitational Media.Philippine imports increased by 11.2% year-on-year in October, while exports decreased by 5.5% year-on-year.
Wang Zhonglin, Governor of Hubei Province had a discussion with He Xiaopeng, Chairman of Xpeng Motors. On the morning of December 9, Wang Zhonglin, Deputy Secretary of Hubei Provincial Party Committee and Governor, had a discussion with He Xiaopeng, Chairman and CEO of Xpeng Motors. Wang Zhonglin expressed the hope that Xpeng Motors will continue to deepen its cooperation with Hubei, further increase its investment layout in Hubei, expand cooperation space in new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots and other fields, promote more new technologies and new products to land in Hubei, and help Hubei forge ahead in promoting scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, and accelerate the cultivation and expansion of new quality productivity. He Xiaopeng said that Xpeng Motors will continue to regard Hubei as the key area of business layout, further increase its investment in Hubei, actively promote the transformation and upgrading of Hubei's automobile industry and the development and growth of emerging industries, and make new and greater contributions to accelerating the establishment of Hubei as an important strategic fulcrum for the rise of central China.At least 80 people were killed or injured in air strikes in Sudan. On December 9, local time, Sudan's non-governmental organization "Displaced Persons Coordination Organization" said that Sudan and Sudan suffered large-scale air strikes that day, causing at least 80 casualties. The organization said that a market in Kabkabiya, Northern Darfur, was attacked by five bombs, killing at least 30 civilians and injuring more than 50 others. Nyala, the capital of South Kordofan, was also attacked by air on the same day. Nyala airport and several blocks in the city were hit by dozens of bombs, and the runway of Nyala airport was completely destroyed, causing casualties. The specific casualties are still in the statistics.General Administration of Customs: Import and export of general trade and processing trade increased. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months, China's general trade import and export was 25.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%, accounting for 64.1% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, the export was 15.04 trillion yuan, up by 7.9%; Imports reached 10.46 trillion yuan, down 1.8%. In the same period, the import and export of processing trade was 7.22 trillion yuan, up by 3.6%, accounting for 18.1%. Among them, exports were 4.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8%; Imports reached 2.64 trillion yuan, up 6.9%. In addition, China's import and export by bonded logistics was 5.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%. Among them, exports were 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.9%; Imports reached 3.44 trillion yuan, up by 14.4%.